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Canadian herbal supplies limited (CNQ) Q1 2021 salary call Transcript

Logo of jester cap with thought bubble.

photograph source: The Motley idiot.

Canadian herbal materials restricted (NYSE:CNQ)Q1 2021 income CallMay 6, 2021, eleven:00 a.m. ET

Contents:
  • organized Remarks
  • Questions and solutions
  • name contributors
  • organized Remarks:

    Operator

    decent morning. we would like to welcome every person to the Canadian natural resources First Quarter 2021 income conference name and Webcast. Presentation slides are available to view with the webcast and in PDF structure at www.cnrl.com. After the presentation, we will habits a query-and-answer session. directions might be given at the moment. Please notice that this name is being recorded these days, may 6, 2021 at 9:00 a.m. Mountain Time.

    i'd now like to flip the meeting over to your host for ultra-modern name, Corey Bieber, govt advisor. Please go ahead, Mr. Bieber.

    Corey Bieber -- executive guide

    thanks, operator, and first rate morning, every person, and welcome to Canadian herbal's First Quarter 2021 company update convention name. As outlined, to facilitate ultra-modern name, you'll discover a duplicate of the presentation slides on our web page which i would inspire you to download now as a way to observe alongside. Canadian natural had a strong first quarter financially and operationally. Our asset base is pleasing among our peer neighborhood, underpinned with the aid of long-existence, low-decline assets, complemented by our well-known belongings that allow massive flexibility and all of which may generate massive free cash circulation. past our amazing asset base, there is a corporate strategy that makes a speciality of producing actual returns for shareholders and a pushed administration team and a corporate subculture that focuses on being valuable and productive.

    through the years, Canadian natural has confirmed its robustness, sustainability and the energy of its business plan. For 2021 and beyond, I accept as true with we are one of a couple of organizations able to supplying meaningful economic increase, increasing returns to shareholders and decreasing absolute debt in a liable manner. For ultra-modern name, Tim McKay, our President, will first provide a corporate update, Mark Stainthorpe, our Chief financial Officer, will then supply an replace on our fiscal -- 2021 financial outlook in addition to our potent monetary place. Tim will then supply a summary just before opening up for questions. earlier than we kick off, i might like to remind you of our ahead-searching statements shown on slide three, and our reporting disclosures shown on slide 4. Of notice in our reporting disclosures is that everything might be in Canadian greenbacks unless otherwise cited. And as smartly, we record our reserves and creation earlier than royalties. i'd additionally suggest to review our comments on non-GAAP disclosures.

    So with that, i could flip it over to you, Tim.

    Tim S. McKay -- President

    thanks, Corey. respectable morning, all and sundry. starting with slide 5. Canadian natural is in a extremely powerful position. we have notable property, working excellence and with our capital self-discipline the capability to beef up our balance sheet and convey returns to our shareholders. This additionally applies to environmental, social and governance side of the enterprise, ESG, the place we're delivering business-leading efficiency across the board, a significant component in our long-term sustainability. Canadian herbal takes an extended-time period view on ESG, aimed at creating long-term price, guaranteeing we determine, check, quantify, undertake and align ourselves and then execute. we are establishing plans to address these hazards via applying technology and innovation, to be able to always enrich our performance in the near, mid and future, always making certain it's including cost. relocating to slip six. in case you look on the standard ESG performance when it comes to investment priority, or not it's very clear that Canada is an international leader and ratings the maximum in each category and will be an funding precedence. slide seven, a couple of weeks ago, our federal executive had two announcements.

    the first on April 19 became the federal budget, which acknowledges that carbon catch, utilization and storage, CCUS is a crucial pathway for Canada to achieve its environmental goals. As smartly, a couple of days later, federal govt introduced that Canada might be expanding its goal from forty% to 45% reduction in GHG emissions through 2030. As a part of the federal government budget announcement, we can participate in the consultation technique with respect to CCUS, as well we'll work to align with these new dreams. subsequent slide. Canada herbal -- Canadian -- Canada's oil and gas sector respect the need to cut back GHG emissions, and we've been in a position to leverage know-how and Canadian ingenuity to convey marvelous outcomes. Canadian herbal has invested approximately $three.9 billion in R&D considering the fact that 2009, using this investment to cut back our environmental footprint, unlock reserves and drive ever more useful and effective operations, investing now to do even stronger in the future. Slides -- as it may also be seen on slide nine, our third-party has reviewed our oil sands emissions and decided that for Scope one emission, Canadian herbal become 35% reduce than our peer usual.

    while here's a superb beginning factor, we are still progressing projects with a purpose to proceed to power our GHG intensity down. slide 10, for CCUS, Canadian herbal is using state-of-the-paintings carbon trap discount technologies and is a pacesetter within the oil and gas business on earth. With this infrastructure in location, we can leverage them to trap extra CO2. These three facilities are presently operating and are taking pictures approximately 2.7 million tonnes of CO2 per yr, akin to taking about 576,000 cars off the street annually. subsequent slide. yet another promising technology is solvents in each SAGD and the capabilities at Primrose in the steam flood enviornment. At Kirby South, the pilot continues to perform well with GHG intensity discount of approximately 45%, inside the targeted latitude, and we are going to proceed to video display its efficiency in 2021. The pilot at Primrose is focused for commencement in this autumn 2021. And comparable to Kirby South, it's going to take a number of years to evaluate its performance. In both cases, this know-how can also be utilized to an identical properties and may cut back our GHG depth as much as 50% and have centered operating can charge reductions of approximately $1 per barrel.

    moving to slide 12. getting to web zero takes the potential to leverage know-how, be resourceful the use of Canadian ingenuity. As well, we've described movements within the close, mid and long term. Canadian herbal has a massive know-how funnel with simply just a few of those activities listed right here, as we development our experience to net zero. Slide 13, we've a track record of invariably improving our GHG depth. when you consider that 2012, we now have methodically enhanced our GHG depth through 32%, such as taking approximately 1.9 million cars off the road yearly, and we are progressing projects to proceed that style of reducing our GHG depth. moving to the subsequent slide. In abstract, Canadian herbal is providing main ESG performance. Our long-existence, low-decline assets are advantaged who can leverage expertise, innovation and continual growth to deliver ever-enhancing environmental performance, offering consequences over the long-time period with a pathway to achieving net zero in the oil sands, as we work with governments. it's clear that Canadian natural may still be an ESG investment priority. relocating to our company update, slide sixteen. Canadian natural continues to convey strong operational outcomes, and we're focused on providing price for our shareholders.

    within the first quarter, we delivered record creation of approximately 1.246 million BOEs. record liquids production of approximately 979,000 barrels a day, an increase of 6% and four%, respectively, over Q1 '20, essentially as a result of our listing oil sands mining, SCO creation of approximately 468,800 barrels a day and robust North American E&P construction, together with thermal, of about 478,seven hundred barrels a day. Our natural gasoline construction turned into potent at approximately 1.6 Bcf, 11% boost over Q1 '20. working efficiency in all areas was amazing with oil sands mining being exact-tier at CAD19.82 per barrel, 5% lower than a yr in the past. And if you study it from a macro perspective, it be much more magnificent. in comparison to a year ago, we're about 41,000 barrels a day larger. And if you happen to exclude the can charge of natural gasoline, the absolute greenback foundation is very akin to Q1 2020, a fine job carried out via our oil sands mining team. Slide 17. Canadian natural has powerful economic, long-existence, low decline belongings. And relative to most of our peers, the skill to increase the margins and grow construction, which effects in additional lengthy-term value. we now have a varied asset base with value enhancement plans for each product and basin we function.

    here is pushed by means of our effective and productive operations, our enviornment of competencies, possession and operatorship of infrastructure. Canadian herbal has a background of capital discipline, which includes a versatile and beneficial capital allocation and our potential to be nimble to seize opportunities. We proceed to without problems optimize capital allocation and maximize cost for our shareholders. We're ensuring we keep a strong balance sheet. With our low renovation capital and our subculture of leveraging technology, innovation and riding continual growth all over the company, offers us ever-improving operations. it's for these factors, Canadian herbal has a number one free cash circulation era. subsequent slide. Canadian natural has a balanced and diverse product mix with approximately forty eight% it truly is excessive value, easy crude oil, SCO and NGL on a BOE groundwork, limiting our exposure to 1 product. For liquids creation, approximately 81%, from lengthy-existence, low-decline belongings, which requires less upkeep capital than our friends. As smartly, we have 1.6 -- about 1.6 Bcf of natural gas production or approximately 22% of our BOEs, well positioned to seize extra price as natural gas expenditures toughen slide 19.

    because of our wonderful asset base, Canadian natural corporate decline is low at approximately 10%, with about 63% of our BOE construction being long-life, low-decline or zero decline construction. on account of this, we require much less protection capital to keep construction than our friends. next slide. we are executing our 2021 funds, the total finances of $three.2 billion, of which simplest $200 million is for boom capital, and we're transforming into our construction through about 5%. effective efficiency due to the fact that Canadian natural is over 1000000 BOEs a day. With the primary quarter behind us, we are on track and will continue to be disciplined in 2021. With superior pricing that we are seeing today, we are able to generate large free money move and pay down our debt very right now. Slide 21, Canadian herbal 1P reserves are world-category amongst our international peers, which contains the tremendous majors. a powerful indicator of the power and depth of our belongings with about 30-yr reserve lifestyles index, of which approximately 61% represents lengthy-existence, no decline SCO reserves, that has lessen execution risk than many of our peers. As well, I remind you that 100% of Canadian natural reserves are externally evaluated, reviewed through an unbiased, certified reserve evaluators.

    moving to the subsequent slide. in the event you examine web debt to 1P reserves, they were lowest amongst world friends. in addition to you noticed prior, with two third being long-lifestyles, low decline SCO reserves, we have a reduce cost structure and reserve risk. As you can see right here on Slide 23, and Canadian herbal has the highest free money move yield among our global peers, a trademark of the power of our assets, our beneficial and efficient operations and low upkeep capital. Slide 24. And web debt to money flow, we're well located in comparison to our international peers with less debt to money move than a peer ordinary. And or not it's simplest -- it's coming down very immediately, given our free money flow profile for 2021. Slide 25, there are many fine elements forward for the Canadian oil and gas industry. And in our opinion, the cut price to international friends should disappear. Egress is enhancing, heavy oil differentials are again to historical ranges in the low 20%. ESG is a precedence and Canada being a frontrunner, can be identified.

    Canadian natural has plenty reduce working and preservation capital in comparison to our world friends and should now not be undervalued when in comparison to these friends. it is for these reasons, it's clear, Canadian natural should still be an funding opportunity. we have a sustainable company model, a growing sustainable dividend music listing of twenty-one years at a 20% CAGR, which is desirable-tier compared to our global friends. Slide 26. Canadian herbal is a world-classification funding possibility. we have world-classification reserves, a whole lot of it being lengthy-existence, low-decline belongings, which offers us a low decline of approximately 10%, that means low preservation capital as in comparison to our peers. Our correct-tier helpful and efficient operations and our power for continual improvement will make sure our stability sheet will reinforce very directly in 2021, as Mark will exhibit you right here presently. As you saw previous, this gives us the largest free money yield percentage, almost double our international peer regular. eventually, we are focused on cost introduction, as we have grown our sustainable dividend for twenty-one years at 20% CAGR, marvelous when compared to our international peers.

    i will now turn it over to Mark for our monetary overview.

    Mark Stainthorpe -- Chief economic Officer and Senior Vice-President of Finance

    Thanks, Tim, and good morning, every person. i may birth on Slide 28 with the Q1 monetary highlights. Q1 changed into a extremely effective financial quarter, as helpful and efficient operations, together with the enhanced commodity rate backdrop, ended in adjusted funds circulate over $2.7 billion. The free cash flow generated become over $1.four billion after the prudent capital software and dividends within the quarter. This ended in monstrous balance sheet deleveraging as absolute debt was decreased through $1.four billion compared to this autumn 2020 tiers. This represents $2.9 billion of debt discount in view that June of 2020, extra underscoring the capability of our lengthy lifestyles low-decline belongings, mixed with safe, effective and efficient operations to generate leading free money flow. The sustainability of our cash circulation allows for for constant and extending returns to shareholders. In March of this year, we increased our quarterly dividend by means of eleven% to $0.47 per share, which contributed to a yr-to-date shareholder return of about $1.1 billion. This yr's dividend boost represents the twenty first consecutive year of dividend increases at Canadian natural.

    Canadian natural's balanced approach to capital allocation, coupled with our sustainable free money move permits us for expanding returns to shareholders, while paying down absolute debt and growing our distinct asset base, some thing that units Canadian herbal apart. This can be seen on Slide 29, the skill to bring huge and sustainable free money flow. As that you can see, in 2020, we generated mighty free cash flow in a reduce commodity cost environment. Now with the financial rebound and elevated demand and pricing for commodities at about USD60 WTI, Canadian natural is focused to carry tremendous free money circulation within the latitude of $5.7 billion to $6.2 billion after budgeted capital and dividends. And as Tim outlined, our free cash movement yields are monitoring higher than international friends. Our long-life, low decline, low-possibility belongings continue to show why CNQ should be an investment priority. On Slide 30, that you may see the results and the forecast showing the have an impact on of our free cash flow era. At strip pricing, our absolute debt is focused to decline greatly, while returns to shareholders over the identical duration are centered to be approximately $three.2 billion. Few peers, if any, have the capacity to generate and balance this stage of free money circulation and create long-time period shareholder value.

    The influence to leverage metrics is shown on Slide 31. Debt-to-EBITDA is centered to exit 2021 at 1.1 instances and debt-to-ebook capital is focused to be under 30%. With a purposeful maturity profile that allows paying down absolute debt, you can see that so far in 2021, we have repaid and canceled over $1.6 billion of non-revolving facilities. Our background and commitment to stability free cash movement allocation is seen on Slide 32. notwithstanding the difficult commodity atmosphere in 2020, our belongings and company model delivered. We had been capable of nearly hold our web debt stages throughout the 12 months, while executing an accretive herbal gas acquisition, maintained our March 2020 dividend increase, followed by means of a further 11% increase in March 2021. We repurchased shares and expanded both reserves and creation. These are precise-tier outcomes, enhance the resilience of the Canadian herbal business model and our commitment to economic discipline. On Slide 33, that you can see the sustainability of the dividend at Canadian natural. Dividend degrees are always evaluated in opposition t inner forecasts for cash flow, capital, free cash circulation generation, and our means to remain nimble and alter our plans if situations warrant.

    This effects in a business that can assist a sustainable and extending dividend over time and creates consistent value for shareholders over the long run. Slide 34 shows the 5-year compound annual exchange in our dividend in comparison to international friends. Slide 35 shows this boom over ten years. And Slide 36 shows this boom over a twenty-12 months time body. All of these slides illustrate the sustainability of our free cash move technology and the business's precedence to be sure ever-increasing returns to shareholders, including sustainable and growing dividends, as well because the prudent capital allocation at Canadian natural. Slide 37 displays the background of dividend raises. As which you could see, increases have assorted reckoning on our place because it pertains to money stream and capital flexibility at any factor in time, with the focus on sustainable increases. So in abstract, on Slide 38, Canadian herbal has developed an asset base it really is enjoyable and sustainable. And has developed a resilient business model this is flexible and can without delay adapt to changing environments. The assets and business model provide protection and difficult environments like we saw in 2020. moreover, we're placed to advantage exponentially, when commodity fees and markets are extra favorable, like what we're seeing now in 2021. Our emphasis on balancing our four pillars, our enviable and diverse asset base and our execution focused groups with a historical past of strong outcomes are all focused on riding long-time period and increasing shareholder cost.

    With that, i may flip it again to you, Tim.

    Tim S. McKay -- President

    Thanks, Mark. In abstract, Slide forty, Canadian natural's potential to deliver enormous free money circulation in contemporary atmosphere begins with our large reserve base, of which eighty three% being lengthy-existence, low decline. Of our approximately 1.246 million BOEs a day, long-existence, low decline asset, asset-based make up approximately 770,000 barrels a day, of which about 455,000 barrels a day is not any decline, high-cost SCO production. we have a diversified product and belongings that are driven via our advantageous and effective operations, our area of talents, ownership and operatorship of infrastructure, and we have a low sustainable protection capital. we've 1.6 Bcf of natural gas and with our diverse property' capability to add economical production. we now have bendy and valuable capital allocation and our ability to be nimble to trap alternatives. We simply optimize capital allocation to maximize cost for our shareholders. Our tradition of continuous growth is unique among our friends as our groups are focused on providing secure, professional, useful and efficient operations throughout our asset base.

    subsequent slide. With oil at approximately USD60 per barrel, in 2021, Canadian natural can deliver leading free money flow generation of about $5.7 billion to $6.2 billion, which supports our sustainable growing to be dividend of twenty-one years. we now have large debt discount, improving our already effective stability sheet. finally, throughout the business, our teams are concentrated on decreasing our environmental footprint via know-how and innovation, and we seem to be forward to participating in the federal executive session duration.

    With that, i'll turn it over for questions. thank you.

    Questions and solutions:

    Operator

    [Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the road of Menno Hulshof from TD Securities.

    Menno Hulshof -- TD Securities -- Analyst

    Thanks for taking my query. first rate Morning. i could beginning with a question on the stability sheet. So your debt metrics, as you observed, they're coming down in reality at once, and also you've made it very clear that the balance sheet will proceed to appeal to the large majority of free cash movement over the close term. So my query is, what is the endgame in terms of the leveraging technique pre COVID? I accept as true with you are focused on one and a half times and $15 billion of complete debt. So do those objectives still follow? And at what factor can we moderately are expecting buybacks to ramp again up again?

    Mark Stainthorpe -- Chief financial Officer and Senior Vice-President of Finance

    hi there! Thanks respectable Morning. sure, or not it's Mark. I think that for those who seem on the free cash stream era, there's a lot of optionality going forward here. As you have identified the center of attention, even though, goes to be on the steadiness sheet or on absolute debt compensation in the near term. We evaluate this all of the time, and we are going to proceed to that go forward. so far as the buyback at the moment, we're taking a look at basically just offsetting our dilution in the course of the leisure of this 12 months, and that's the reason the target today.

    Menno Hulshof -- TD Securities -- Analyst

    k Thanks Mark. after which my follow-up would be on basin egress. might be we might simply get your techniques on the current market access, together with any ideas on apportionment and inventories and the way it really is impacting your very early strategies, I think, on pure preservation versus boom into 2022.

    Mark Stainthorpe -- Chief monetary Officer and Senior Vice-President of Finance

    Boy, there's loads of speculation on that one as a result of there is loads of diverse objects going the news right here nowadays. And -- however I think we're simply going to step through it. As we are expecting the egress to proceed to improve. Line three looks like it will be q4, TMX probably a bit late, however still moving ahead. definitely, there are concerns with Line 5 and doubtlessly the Dakota access. but it surely's too early to speculate. I mean, in case you analyze in Alberta nowadays, the mild oil facet has zero apportionment. And so it be difficult to invest what that influence of those two gadgets can be. most likely, it'll damage Alberta to a point, if there's an apportionment in a discount. And as smartly with the Dakota access, again, if oil begins to return lower back in through Cromer, can also or might also no longer affect us as a result of i would suspect the individuals that are on the Dakota access are making their personal arrangements ahead of time if they should. So or not it's simply truly -- there may be loads of distinctive issues there. i am nonetheless very bullish when it comes to that loads of these egress considerations will continue to circulation ahead.

    Menno Hulshof -- TD Securities -- Analyst

    So fair to say that you simply're in a maintaining pattern in the course of the end of the year?

    Tim S. McKay -- President

    neatly, we're not changing our capital. it be -- we're basically just staying with the reputation quo.

    Operator

    Your subsequent query comes from the line of Greg Pardy from RBC Capital Markets.

    Greg Pardy -- RBC Capital Markets -- Analyst

    Thanks decent Morning. Tim, just to your -- I guess it became Corey within the opening remarks, you mentioned solvents and so on. and i'm simply wondering in case you can perhaps supply us an update on the place you would predict to observe the solvent expertise? after which simply anything else you may must say on in-pit extraction and then additionally simply potentially on self sufficient haul vans. just fascinated where you are going with that know-how?

    Tim S. McKay -- President

    certain. So for the solvents certainly, the pilot at Kirby South is awfully advanced. And if we appear throughout our asset base, both the Kirby sites and the Jackfish websites could be very amenable to that expertise. So we're very satisfied with the outcomes nowadays. And now it be just making an attempt to determine a plan of going ahead. in terms of Primrose, the steamflood area, that is a little more experimental. We definitely need to pilot it for a couple of years to peer if that will also be utilized to the Primrose enviornment and the steamflood pieces. So too early to assert about Primrose, but i would say for the SAGD, it looks very promising. IPEP. We proceed to improve our commercial engineering. it be -- there may be loads of merits to IPEP, but there may be additionally loads of capital charge upfront. So our groups are nonetheless evaluating it. And we hope to have something this year to say whether we're relocating forward with it or no longer. It surely is a number one know-how. however once again, one of the vital issues we satisfaction ourselves on is doing the specific work and ensuring that the capital forecast that we use is suitable. after which I bet, what changed into the remaining question there, Greg?

    Greg Pardy -- RBC Capital Markets -- Analyst

    self sufficient haul trucks, i was throwing everything in there.

    Tim S. McKay -- President

    Oh, the vans. yes. You know what, the autonomous vans, some operators have more advantage as a result of the style they operate in that. And we have less advantage. but on the other hand, I mean, our groups are electric powered and hydrogen technologies as well to cut back their environmental footprint. it really is likely the largest component we see for our advantage is reducing our GHG and how to do it with either electric powered or hydrogen. but self sufficient vehicles, there is a bit of of a cost piece there to that. And it really depends how effective you are. And our groups do a great job. They measure our efficiency right down to the 2nd. So or not it's -- i'm in reality pleased with the manner our teams have operated in the oil sands.

    Greg Pardy -- RBC Capital Markets -- Analyst

    okay. And just as a 2nd question. You touched on Carbon trap and Storage on the outset you guys have accomplished this very early on, I believe, with Horizon. and obviously, you would outlined AOSP and the Northwest upgrader as well. however might be just focusing on Horizon for a second, I feel you've got bought that Carbon capture and Storage right off the hydrogen plant. Would there be scope that you can enhance how an awful lot of the CO2 you might be shooting off of that -- off of the Horizon facility common? Or are you doing a great deal of that now? simply trying to get a way there.

    Tim S. McKay -- President

    bound. What we did early on and a part of it became the sequestering the CO2 and the tailings. So off of 1 of the hydrogen flowers we've capture and it be not fully utilized as a result of there is simplest so plenty CO2 that we can put into the tailings. And -- so there's attainable capability there in addition to on the 2nd hydrogen unit that we may expand, seize and clearly boost extra CO2 seize at Horizon. So there is these alternatives for bound.

    Operator

    Your next question comes from the line of Dennis Fong from CIBC World Markets.

    Dennis Fong -- CIBC World Markets -- Analyst

    hi! decent Morning thank you for taking my query. the primary of me is barely a follow on with the solvent method. I respect that you type of gave us a bit bit greater context as to the stage of building to your work at Primrose versus the SAGD part of things. and obviously, you guys have been doing quite somewhat when it comes to decreasing your GHG intensity as well. i'm simply curious as to how lots of the implementation of solvent technology at Kirby and Jackfish are at present potentially within your 2025 goals of reducing GHG intensity across your platform? And secondarily, how plenty do you believe may be incremental to that with a a success pilot out of Primrose?

    Tim S. McKay -- President

    yes. i would say it is dependent upon, undoubtedly, on how aggressive you are looking to be on that goal. So if you look at simply a traditional approval building and that you're likely searching in that 2025 time body for something just like the SAGD piece here to in fact start to get into service. but that would be, in my mind, pretty aggressive. without doubt, I believe the best thing for our company is to step through it and make sure that we do the right homework. however just from a development factor of view, because that we're really halfway via 2021, that might be, in my intellect, sort of on the aggressive aspect to beginning to -- neatly, we might must birth pretty much today to get it in region by using 2025.

    Dennis Fong -- CIBC World Markets -- Analyst

    okay. So the theory then can be that any of those technologies may deliver incremental improvement versus your existing 2025 aim of GHG depth discount, i.e., like the benefits don't seem to be currently sort of covered to your dreams delivered yet?

    Tim S. McKay -- President

    sure, it really is proper. if you look at -- smartly, there may be a few technologies we're engaged on. undoubtedly, meanwhile, there is loads of different work being done to in the reduction of our GHG emissions. however yes, carbon capture, the solvents are all future technologies. And same with the molten fuel carbonate cells. they are all future applied sciences with a view to basically support us to in the reduction of the absolute CO2 emissions.

    Dennis Fong -- CIBC World Markets -- Analyst

    excellent. and then simply following on to -- on from Menno's question there, just around capital allocation. definitely, the primary center of attention right here is round decreasing absolutely the debt number and attending to a reduce leverage condition. How should still we be thinking about sort of the longer-time period strategy, certainly, balancing between the four pillars, thinking about returning value again to shareholders. but also, there are a few projects which are pretty low capital intensity and actually have pretty tremendous financial upside. How should still we be brooding about maybe one of the most criteria from a leverage point of view that you'd agree with before -- as well as egress before you would believe moving ahead on things like IPEP, definitely, versus what you kind of described earlier than and even debottlenecking tasks at Horizon or one of the other not pricey tasks that you have sort of mentioned at AOSP as well?

    Tim S. McKay -- President

    well, it is a really -- the hard a part of it truly is that we would must type of speculate in -- on definite conditions, no matter if or not it's egress or pricing and it be in reality problematic to say. What i will be able to say is, if you seem to be out, I can't see us doing a massive project, when it comes to capital expenditure, when it comes to Horizon expansion. If we do the rest, i think, it can be very small. we are going to leverage off our facilities. We're doing drill to fill on the gasoline aspect. With the oil aspect, it will be almost brownfield small tendencies. I just don't see actually any industry -- anybody within the industry definitely being aggressive on any variety of principal capital program.

    Operator

    Your next query comes from the line of Neil Mehta from Goldman Sachs.

    Neil Mehta -- Goldman Sachs -- Analyst

    thanks so a great deal. You guys have confirmed out M&A is a core competency on your enterprise. Tim, I simply desired your perspective on how you're seeing the A&D market at this point? And are there alluring opportunities either to buy or to sell?

    Tim S. McKay -- President

    What we see in that market nowadays is that loads of the smaller entities are doing deals merging and that. and that i believe they deserve to. On a much bigger scale, I in reality do not see anything else if I study ourselves, we haven't any gaps. we've lots of alternatives inside our own portfolio these days. So I simply -- what I see is there'll probably be a little more consolidation, however will still proceed on the smaller enterprise's level.

    Dennis Fong -- CIBC World Markets -- Analyst

    ok. it is useful. and also you guys did the Painted Pony acquisition, your big natural gasoline producer. simply curious what your thoughts are on the AECO market here? And any comments on how the natural fuel a part of your business is contributing to the cash flow in 2021?

    Tim S. McKay -- President

    neatly, the Painted Pony belongings was in reality an opportunistic acquisition about a yr ago. gasoline expenses had been surely quite a bit distinct. And even the forecast become fairly a bit diverse at that time. And with it, gasoline expenses have reinforced, I feel everybody is being, for the most half, drastically more capital disciplined now than they ever were. And -- so I do not see any large considerations on the egress right here within the brief term. but I consider americans are getting their stability sheets so as, and the AECO rate is looking powerful. In our budget, we had about a $2.50, I think, roughly round $2.70, probably $2.75 for the year now. So it's a little bit more advantageous, nevertheless it's -- undoubtedly, we're continuing with our gas program because it looks to be retaining in.

    Operator

    [Operator Instructions] Your subsequent question comes from the road of Phil Gresh from JPMorgan.

    Phil Gresh -- JPMorgan -- Analyst

    sure hello decent Morning. I are looking to try simply the balance sheet comply with-up question, probably just worded a little bit of a distinct approach. The 1.5 times leverage target has historically correlated. It was anything round $15 billion of web debt. Your target for the conclusion of the year at these prices could be beneath that. It gave the look of nearer to $14 billion. So i was just curious if -- has the internet debt goal -- having undergone COVID and things like that, has that longer-term goal changed in any respect in your view? Do you nevertheless feel it's a good bogey for us to be considering, recognizing that even relocating ahead, if you shifted the combine that there'd nonetheless be a debt paydown point to it, i'd think.

    Mark Stainthorpe -- Chief fiscal Officer and Senior Vice-President of Finance

    yes. I imply, after we were going into 2020, we had been undoubtedly forecasting some massive debt discounts in that yr. issues modified a little bit, we were in a position to type of enter and exit relatively a great deal flat and do this acquisition on the conclusion of the 12 months, which was potent. And now as we go into 2021, we're simply lower back on that song of paying down absolute debt. And as i mentioned, with that maturity profile to actually facilitate being in a position to do that on an absolute basis. So I consider, yes, as we tune down lessen, there's always going to be possibility to look at that free money move and the optionality there to stability the four pillars. however simply here within the near time period, we're concentrated on that absolute debt reduction.

    Phil Gresh -- JPMorgan -- Analyst

    ok. My second query is simply across the sustaining capex of the company. Coming into the downturn, I think it became around a $three.7 billion forecast, now it be $3.0 billion. and i changed into just questioning how an awful lot of that in retrospect do you view as cyclical versus structural elements that you have simply greater and taking fees out? And just together with your updates right here around GHG, do you believe that there can be incremental capital spending required to achieve these targets that perhaps -- can be regarded sustaining capital?

    Mark Stainthorpe -- Chief economic Officer and Senior Vice-President of Finance

    smartly, Phil, yes, the sustaining capital I mean certainly, there is a lot of components that exchange from yr-to-yr. most likely, the can charge -- absolutely the charge of doing enterprise changes the charge of metal and every little thing else. So nowadays, we're at the $three billion, it's in line with a stability of fairly an awful lot equal of oil and fuel increase. as a way to me, we're -- is dependent upon what type of application we do in the future. lots of instances depends on the where our sustaining capital would be. when it comes to the GHG piece, it be too early to assert in terms of what that capital profile could be. without doubt, a big part of it is going to come out of what the federal government has in intellect after this session length. And so these days, I feel we will simply look at -- participate in that technique, and then we are going to work out the place -- what that capital profile may seem like. without doubt, carbon seize the way that they had it, it certainly lends itself very first rate for the greater amenities, even if they're cement flora or oil sands plant life or fertilizer groups that -- it appears to be targeting probably the most greater emitters. So we will should see what that application feels like right here in the future.

    Operator

    There aren't any additional questions at present. i may turn the name returned to management for closing remarks.

    Corey Bieber -- govt marketing consultant

    thanks, operator, and that wraps up our formal presentations. i would like to thank all of you for your participation this morning. in case you do have any questions or comply with-ups, please do not hesitate to supply us a shout on the IR crew. thank you very plenty. Take care. Bye.

    Operator

    [Operator Closing Remarks]

    period: forty one minutes

    call contributors:

    Corey Bieber -- govt marketing consultant

    Tim S. McKay -- President

    Mark Stainthorpe -- Chief financial Officer and Senior Vice-President of Finance

    Menno Hulshof -- TD Securities -- Analyst

    Greg Pardy -- RBC Capital Markets -- Analyst

    Dennis Fong -- CIBC World Markets -- Analyst

    Neil Mehta -- Goldman Sachs -- Analyst

    Phil Gresh -- JPMorgan -- Analyst

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    this article represents the opinion of the creator, who may also disagree with the “official” suggestion place of a Motley idiot premium advisory carrier. We’re motley! Questioning an investing thesis -- even one among our personal -- helps us all feel seriously about investing and make selections that assist us develop into smarter, happier, and richer.


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